A working-capital plan for an FX shock

The World Bank and IMF entered 2026 warning about external pressure, tighter finance and downside risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. Neither regional outlook predicts the exchange rate a company will receive on a payment date. A working-capital plan does not need that prediction. It needs amounts, dates and explicit stress rates.

Build 13 weekly columns and start with the largest foreign-currency mismatch.

Opening cash by currency

List bank and permitted wallet balances in their actual currencies. Separate restricted customer funds, collateral and minimum balances. Do not convert everything into one reporting currency and lose the ability to pay.

Confirm access, value date and withdrawal limits. A foreign balance at an overseas provider may not settle a local obligation immediately.

Record undrawn committed facilities with currency, conditions and notice. An application or verbal offer is not liquidity.

Reconcile opening cash to statements before forecasting.

Committed foreign payments

List supplier, debt, software, lease and tax obligations with currency, amount and due date. Separate signed commitments from purchase forecasts.

Show deposit and balance. A shipment can require foreign cash before it produces local inventory or revenue. Cancellation may lose the deposit.

Debt service includes principal, interest, fees and hedging or collateral calls. Use the facility schedule.

Rank by consequence: production stop, default, data loss, penalty or replaceable purchase. Amount alone does not set priority.

Reliable receipts

List customer cash by contractual currency and realistic collection week. A foreign-currency invoice is not foreign cash until collected under terms that allow the company to retain and use it.

Apply customer history and disputes. Keep sales pipeline outside the base case. A signed order that invoices later belongs after its working-capital steps.

Export receipt rules and bank processing can change availability. Use current local requirements.

Concentration needs a flag. One delayed receipt can create a weekly gap even when the quarter balances.

Replacement inventory

Historical-cost inventory can show profit while replacement requires more local cash. Revalue planned purchases at current executable rate and stress cases.

Protect items that stop the line, not every stock-keeping unit equally. Reduce order size only after considering freight, minimums and supply risk.

Stock already paid provides temporary protection. Record physical cover and expiry. Selling it at an old price can consume the cash needed to replace it.

Local alternatives need specification, test, volume and price. A sourcing idea is not available supply.

Stress the rate and timing

Apply chosen adverse rates to uncovered payments by week. Label them as scenarios. Add spread and transfer fee based on executable provider evidence.

Delay the largest receipts and accelerate a supplier demand in separate cases. FX shocks often arrive with tighter terms.

Do not stress converted obligations twice. If a local supplier quote already changed, use the quoted amount.

Show the lowest cash point under each case and the date management must act before it.

Decide before the gap

Options include buying currency, arranging a forward where available, seeking customer deposits, changing order timing, negotiating suppliers, drawing credit or reducing other cash use. Each has cost and legal terms.

Compare action deadline, cash effect, reversibility and consequence. A hedge after the payment rate has moved does not restore the old price.

Customer repricing can protect future margin and not today's supplier cash. Show when the new price collects.

Board approval and bank documentation need lead time. Put them on the calendar.

Track execution

Update actual rate, amount, fees and value date for each transaction. Reconcile the forecast weekly and preserve variance.

Maintain approved counterparties and beneficiary controls. Urgency increases fraud risk. Verify changed bank details through an independent channel.

Report open exposure by currency and week, not a single net number. Opposite positions months apart do not offset cash.

Review concentration with each bank or provider. A frozen route can be as damaging as a rate move.

Exit emergency mode

When the shock stabilises, keep the currency sub-ledger and contract changes. Release excess inventory with attention to margin and cash.

Review which customers, suppliers and approvals caused delay. Adjust quote validity, deposit, currency and procurement policy where commercially workable.

A 13-week table cannot eliminate exchange risk. It reveals the week in which the risk becomes a missed payment and gives management time to choose the loss it can carry.

A weekly decision record

Keep a separate decision log beside the forecast. Record the date, exposure, options considered, rate or supplier evidence, person approving and cash effect expected. The following review should compare realised cash with that decision rather than judging it from the later exchange rate alone. A sensible hedge can lose against a favourable move and still have protected the payment the board chose to secure.

Add near misses. A payment completed after an emergency document chase or a customer receipt arriving hours before payroll reveals process risk even when the closing balance stayed positive. Assign remediation and due date. The objective is not a perfect currency call; it is a company that can meet obligations under the cases it approved.

Sources

• World Bank, 8 April 2026: Africa Economic Update April 2026
• International Monetary Fund, 16 April 2026: Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2026