Africa supplies minerals and captures less than 1% of clean-tech manufacturing

The International Energy Agency estimates that Africa supplies about 75% of global manganese, 70% of cobalt and nearly 20% of copper, yet captures less than 1% of value from manufacturing clean-energy technologies and components. The contrast is large. It can also produce a lazy prescription: process everything locally.

A mineral becomes a battery, vehicle, cable or other component through different chemical and industrial steps. Each step needs power, transport, skills, finance, environmental control and a buyer. Resource share establishes an input position. It does not guarantee competitive manufacturing.

The product earns the premium.

Start at the ore body

Grade, mineralogy, scale and impurities affect extraction and processing. Two deposits carrying the same commodity name can require different plants and costs. A national production total cannot price a specific project.

Mining rights and geological data need legal and technical diligence. Community agreements, water, rehabilitation and waste management belong in the economic model before production. Deferring those costs does not remove them.

The mine may export ore or concentrate because existing logistics and buyer contracts support that form. Changing the product can require new equipment, standards and customers. Export restriction alone cannot build those links.

Royalties and taxes generate public value at extraction, though collection, stability and spending determine the result. Manufacturing share is another measure, not the only measure of benefit.

Climb to concentration and refining

Concentration removes waste and raises the valuable material share. Smelting and refining produce metals or chemicals that downstream plants can use. Energy intensity, reagents, water and by-products differ by mineral.

Power reliability can determine location more than distance to the mine. A processor near a deposit with costly outages may lose to a distant plant with efficient electricity and port access. Transporting ore carries waste; transporting power is not always feasible.

Scale matters. A refinery needs enough suitable feed for years. Relying on one mine creates supply risk; combining feed from several mines requires compatible material and logistics. Cross-border supply can improve scale and add customs and currency exposure.

The IEA identifies opportunities such as spherical graphite, high-purity manganese sulphate and processed copper-cobalt materials in specific regions. These are distinct products. A country should test the relevant route rather than adopt “beneficiation” as one technology.

Move from material to component

Battery cells, solar modules, wind equipment and electric vehicles require many inputs beyond the mineral a country produces. Components must meet precise quality, safety and warranty standards. Defects can create recalls far beyond the value of raw material.

Manufacturing equipment is often imported. Suppliers provide process knowledge, maintenance and intellectual property under commercial terms. Local technical capability develops through production, but the first factory needs staff before that learning occurs.

A component plant also needs a market. Domestic demand can support scale if buyers can finance products and standards permit them. Export markets add tariffs, rules of origin, shipping and customer qualification.

Automotive experience in Morocco and South Africa shows the value of an existing supplier and logistics base. It does not mean the same route transfers unchanged to every country or technology.

Leave the margin cells blank until quoted

Revenue at each stage depends on product specification, recovery, market price and contract. Cost includes feedstock, power, labour, reagents, maintenance, finance, logistics and compliance. Public commodity prices rarely provide a complete plant margin.

A government presentation can compare ore and refined-product export values while omitting the extra input and capital. Build an incremental cash flow: additional sale value minus additional operating cost, capital service, working capital and risk.

Do not assign a generic processing premium. Obtain feed and offtake terms, engineering estimates and power offers. Stress utilisation and ramp-up. A plant operating below design can carry nearly full fixed cost.

Currency matters on both sides. Export revenue may be foreign currency while wages and some inputs are local. Imported equipment and debt can create foreign obligations before production begins.

Public value needs its own ledger

Local processing can create jobs, supplier demand, skills, tax and infrastructure. Count direct construction separately from permanent operation. Estimate indirect effects with a disclosed method and avoid presenting modelled jobs as payroll.

Public support has cost. Tax relief, discounted power, guarantees, roads and equity should appear beside expected benefits. A project can increase manufacturing value and deliver a poor public return if support absorbs the gain.

Environmental burden can also move with the value chain. Processing waste, emissions and water use need permits, monitoring and funded closure. Exporting less raw material is not automatically cleaner.

Publish realised metrics after operation: local payroll, procurement, tax paid, output, public support and compliance. An investment commitment is not realised value capture.

Choose a rung, not the whole ladder

A country may have an advantage in one intermediate product and no near-term case for final assembly. Regional integration can divide stages among power, mineral, manufacturing and port hubs. That requires reliable trade and payment, not self-sufficiency in each jurisdiction.

Policy should begin with mineral-specific engineering, customer requirements and infrastructure. Pilot qualification can reduce risk before a full plant. Training should attach to equipment and production dates.

The IEA's less-than-1% figure identifies a wide manufacturing gap. Closing part of it can create real value. The project still has to earn each rung.

Sources

• International Energy Agency, 6 October 2025: Stepping Up the Value Chain in Africa