Trade heatmaps show concentration that a continent-wide total hides

A continental export total can rise because one commodity shipment to one partner increased. The number describes value and conceals concentration. A heatmap keeps partner and product visible.

Afreximbank's African Trade Heatmaps 2026, distributed through tralac, uses 2025 data to show trade intensity across partners, products and regional groupings. This article explains how to read that form without reproducing proprietary chart values.

Find the cell definition

Read the row, column, unit, period and colour scale. A cell may show dollar value, share, growth or an index. Darker does not always mean larger absolute trade.

Check whether exports and imports appear separately. A strong two-way relationship can look different when netted. Trade balance cannot show supply dependence by itself.

Nominal dollar values combine quantity, price and currency. Commodity price movement can darken a cell while physical volume falls. Use volume where available.

The 2026 publication uses 2025 data. It is a historical picture, not a live customs feed.

Scan partner concentration

Read across a country's export row. If a few partner cells dominate, demand or policy in those markets can affect receipts. Identify whether the concentration comes from geography, trade agreements or a product.

Import concentration carries supply risk, especially for essential fuel, food, medicine, machinery or inputs. A large partner can be efficient and create dependence.

Calculate top-one, top-three or a concentration index only from the underlying data and state the method. The colour alone supports a visual observation, not a precise share.

A regional grouping can hide concentration within it. “Trade with Asia” may rest mainly on one country.

Scan product concentration

Read down a product or across the relevant product rows. Broad categories can mix raw and processed goods. Classification depth affects the story.

A country exporting several mineral products can remain exposed to one underlying cycle. A diverse list of agricultural codes can share weather and logistics.

Manufactured exports can include imported components, so gross export value differs from domestic value added. Heatmaps describe recorded trade, not retained income.

Product concentration can be deliberate and profitable. Risk assessment asks about substitutes, inventories, contracts and fiscal dependence rather than declaring concentration bad.

Cross partner and product

The most revealing view asks which product goes to which partner. A concentrated product sold across many markets differs from one sold to a single buyer.

If a partner buys one commodity and supplies machinery, disruption can hit revenue and replacement investment together. The gross bilateral total will not expose that composition.

Transit and re-export hubs can appear as partners even when goods end elsewhere. Customs data and mirror statistics may differ. Document the source convention.

Confidentiality can suppress small cells. A blank may mean zero, missing or protected data. Read the legend.

Locate corridor dependence

Trade value moves through ports, roads, rail, pipelines and border posts. The heatmap does not show the physical route by itself. Add logistics data.

Several partner cells can depend on one port or strait. Geographic diversification without corridor diversification leaves a common failure point.

Map time, capacity, season and alternate route. A nominal alternative can be too costly or lack customs capability for the product.

Companies should connect supplier and customer records to corridors. National trade data is the background, not the inventory plan.

Compare years carefully

Use the same classification, source and currency. A methodology change can move cells. New country groupings or revised customs records can create apparent growth.

Separate value change from share change. A partner's value can rise and its share fall if total trade grows faster. Both statements can be true.

Inflation and commodity prices affect nominal comparison. Deflation requires an appropriate price series and can be difficult for mixed products.

Do not extrapolate a two-year colour shift into a forecast. Policy, harvest, mines and shipping can change abruptly.

Turn a dark cell into questions

For a government, ask how much public revenue and employment depend on the flow, whether contracts are diversified and which infrastructure supports it. For a company, ask customer or supplier concentration, currency, payment and replacement time.

Turn the selected cell into a short exposure file. Name the product code, partner, latest value and volume, main companies where public, route, payment currency, fiscal link and plausible substitute. Mark fields the heatmap cannot answer. That file prevents a dark colour from becoming a broad national claim and gives officials or managers a list of evidence to collect before deciding on stock, credit or infrastructure.

For a lender, connect the cell to borrower cash. A national export boom does not help a firm outside the product or unable to collect proceeds.

For an investor, distinguish a structural cluster from a one-year price effect. Examine capacity, cost and market access.

Repeat the file for the largest import dependency and look for a common shock. A country can sell one commodity to a partner and buy critical machinery from the same market, leaving export receipts and replacement supply exposed to one relationship. The bilateral total alone looks balanced.

Heatmaps are useful because they refuse to compress every relationship into one number. They do not answer the operating questions; they tell you which cell deserves them.

Sources

• Afreximbank / tralac, 2026: African Trade Heatmaps 2026